Moneyball

Now I know this is usually a basketball blog but I just had to post about this.  What a year for Billy Beane! I mean first you've got this guy playing you in a movie.

The Brad

If I ever have Bradley Pitt playing me in a movie call my life complete.  On top of this, the Athletic's are on fire, just locked up the American League East, and are a dark horse world series candidate.  Beane is the absolute man, and no one can touch him.  Moneyball is in full swing like it was 2003.  

The NBA has a rare problem these days.  All of the superstar players are teaming up rather than competing against each other.  In the 80's and 90's Bird, Magic, and Jordan had famous rivalries.  Nowadays, the Lakers, Thunder, and Heat are the only teams with a shot at the title.  Many general managers are wondering how they can possibly compete in smaller markets.  Players are bolting as soon as they become free agents to go play in the bigger markets of Los Angeles, Chicago, Miami, and Boston.  

Hard to compete with...

The answer is moneyball.  Billy Beane's system in baseball is to sign players that are undervalued by other teams but perform well in certain statistical categories.  By doing this, Beane is able to build efficient teams that compete with the likes of the New York Yankees who have unlimited spending power.  

I believe this system is also possible in basketball.  Teams in smaller markets must try to sign undervalued players that can help them compete.  Teams should focus on certain statistical categories and sign players that mesh well together and have good +/- differentials.  But what categories would work for basketball?  The first few that come to mind are shooting percentage, usage rate, free throw percentage, and rebound rate.  By meshing efficient players together who hit a high percentage of their shots and love to share the ball, I believe a small market team could build  a championship contending roster.  

There are some potential drawbacks to moneyball in basketball.  Baseball is very much a one-on-one sport.  A player comes to the plate, and then its him versus the defense until he either gets on base or gets out.  Basketball is a team sport with five players working together on the court at the same time.  The pieces must mesh while also being efficient as individual players.  Each player brings different skill sets to the table.  This would have to be accounted for in a formula for moneyball in basketball.  

This system of moneyball in basketball could make for a much more competitive NBA, and therefore a more exciting product for the fans.  Research has been done on how certain statistics affect winning percentage, and how players affect each other while they are on the court together.  Much more research in these categories could lead to a refined system of moneyball in basketball.  More small market teams should use this system to be able to compete with the big market teams that can outspend them and have the endorsement appeal that the bigger markets bring for players.  Moneyball is the answer, teams in smaller markets just need to start using it.